Montpellier- Bordeaux (Coupe de la Ligue)

Montpellier- Bordeaux (Coupe de la Ligue)

My first trade was pure luck

My first trade was pure luck.

I found out yesterday. Three games traded, all with losses.

Arsenal-Reading was a historical weird game.
Milan-Palermo,also a loss
anderlecht gent also.
I will update later on.


Now I have changed my strategy on a few points.

0-0 trading after 20 minutes or earlier if the odd is 75% of the starting odd.
0-1 and 1-0 trading if 75% of the starting odd or if it is half time.

If a goal is scored earlier. Lay the score after 1 minute the goal is scored.

Trade #1: Sheffield United - Portsmouth (League 1)

Trade #1: Sheffield United - Portsmouth (League 1)

I will enter my first trade with the strategy I posted before.

Pre-match information

I did'nt knew much about this match. I just entered it with my strategy.

Match Odds

As you can see on the Betfair pre-match odds. Sheffield United was the favourite to win the match.


Unfortunality I don't have a screenshot of my starting position but it was as followed:

• 0-0 @ 14.50 (stake €5)
• 1-0 @ 9.00 (stake €10)
• 0-1 @ 18.00 (stake €5)

Strategy:

My plan was to secure my profits of the 0-0 scoreline between the 10th and 20th minute.  Or if the odd of the 0-0 scoreline was dropped to 75/80% of it's starting position.
That is: 14.5*0.75= 10.8

The Trade

As I mentioned earlier my starting position was as followed:

• 0-0 @ 14.50 (stake €5)
• 1-0 @ 9.00 (stake €10)
• 0-1 @ 18.00 (stake €5)

The first 8 minutes of the match showed a open match but it took till the 9th minute till the first chance was in the match. There was'nt a better looking team.
Sheffield United had the first chanche to score a goal in the match. It was a scrimmage before the goal but Portsmouth managed to clear it.

• 0-0 dropped to 14.0 (9th minute)
•  0-0 dropped to 13.0 (12th minute)

I decided to wait till the 15th minute and than starting laying.

Trade #1 and #2 Laying the 0-0

• #1 Lay 0-0 @ 13.00 with stake €3 (16th minute)

There were more and more chances so I had to secure my 0-0 bets very quickly.

• #2 Lay 0-0 @ 8.8 with stake €2 (24th minute)

 Now I  had cleared my bets at 0-0.

Trade #3, 4, 5 Laying 0-1 and 1-0

 The game was now in the 30th minute and Portsmouth had many chances and I could see them scoring a goal. I decided to look if we could transer a bit of 1-0 profit to the 0-1. 

• #3 Lay 1-0 @ 6.2 with stake €2 (30th minute) 

If Sheffield scored I would lose my profit on the 0-1.

• #4  Lay 1-0 @ 5.8 with stake €2 (33th minute)
• #5 Lay 0-1 @ 8.8 with stake €2 (33th minute)

Now I had reduced my potential liability to €9.

• 0-0 €6.9 profit
• 1-0 €57 profit
• 0-1 €63.6 profit
• Other scorelines: €9,- liability

Trade #6,7,8 Scalping 0-0 profits

If there now was scored a goal I would lose my €6.9 profit on the 0-0. So I decided to scalp profit to the 1-0 and 0-1 scoreline.

• #6 Back 0-1 @ 8.2 with stake €2
• #7 Back 1-0 @ 5.3 with stake €2
• #8 Back 1-0 @ 5.0 with stake €2

Half Time

Half-time situation

As you can see I was already to be able to check out with a €16.53 profit. This was very attractive, cause we started the game with the risk to lose €20, now we already could double that money.

Second Half

• #9 Lay 1-0 @ 4.6 with stake €2 (51th minute)

• #10 Lay 0-1 @ 6.8 with stake €2 (56th minute)

• #11 Lay 1-0 @ 4.1 with stake €9 (62th minute) 

Possible liability reduced till €0(screenshot below)

Situation right after the first goal is scored

Sheffield United get's a penalty in the 64th minute! They did't fail on the spot so the 1-0 is scored!.

Trades after the 1-0: Trade 12, 

Back the next possible scorelines so the profit of the 1-0 will not disaepear fully!

• #12 Back 1-1 @ 6.4 with stake €5
• #13 Back  2-0 @4.6 with stake €5
• #14 Lay 1-0 @2.2 with stake €2
• #15 Lay 1-0 @ 2.1 with stake €2

So the situation is now as followed: (see screenshot below)

• #16 Lay 1-0 @ 1.81 with stake €2 (76th minute)
• #17 Lay 1-0 @ 1.36 with stake €2 (86th minute)

Did this to transfer some of the profit of the 1-0 to the next scorelines if a late goal was scored.

Cash out at the 88th minute

• #18 CASH OUT!

I decided to cash out in the 88th minute to secure a profit of €22.49!

Feedback

I would like to have some feedback on this trade! So if you have something to say, please comment! Was this trade succesful cause of pure luck or did I do well?

Using a correct score strategy

After watched a few trade video's, it seemed pretty easy to make money with a correct score strategy. I realise it only looked easy cause in practice it is very hard to think clear and stay with your strategy.
Cause i don't have much experience, I will start with a small budget of €20 per trade.

Before I enter my first serious trade, I will give formulate my strategy. It is as followed:

Before the trade

1.  First I will Back the 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0
2. I will do this with stakes of the amount the profits wil be equal. Divide the budget of €20 about the three choices.
3. It is important that we try to manage that our potential liability is not more than the doubled amount of your budget. So if you start with €20, maximum liability is €40. But only if there is not another way.

The trade

1. We have to protect our current position. Normally the first goal of a match is scored between the 15th and 30th minute of a match. So it is important to trade the 0-0 before the 20th minute. Therefore I have a rule. Start with trading the 0-0 if, the first 15 minutes are over or if the starting odd has fallen down to 75/80% of the starting odd.
2. Then look at how the match is going. If it is more likely that the 1-0 will be scored than the 0-1? Be sure thata part of the profit of the 0-1 is transferred to the 1-0. You can do this by simply laying a part of 0-1 bet or backing the 1-0 bet.
3. If a goal is scored, be sure that the next possible scorelines are safe. So if the 1-0 is scored, back the 1-1 and 2-0. 

Backing stakes are scalped of the possible profits.

I will start with my first trade with this strategy in mind. I hope it will have succes.

I will introduce myself...

Hi,
I am 19 years old and from the Netherlands. Previously I was sticking to the regular bookmakers like Unibet and Bwin. A year ago I discovered Betfair. I think Betfair is a nice trading market for bets.
I like the fact that you can gain a profit nomather what the outcome is. First I used Betfair for the higher odds than the regular bookmakers. Then I discovered trading. I have read many articles and watched many video's about betfair trading. I hope I am now be able to make some profit. On this blog I will keep my records and will analyse my succeses and failures. Hope you enjoy my blog!